CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON ROAD ACCIDENT AND DEATH OCCURRENCES (A case study of Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) Benue State, Nigeria, 2006-2013)

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CHAPTER ONE

1.0     Background of the Study

This project is on correlation and regression analysis on road accident and death occurrences (a case study of federal road safety commission (FRSC) Benue State, Nigeria, 2006-2013). No nation can achieve economic and technological self-reliance without a good number of scientist and technologist.

Nigeria, as a developing country, requires good number of scientists and technologists as well as other categories of workers to cope with the increasing man power needs of the country.

Government efforts in producing these categories of workers at times is being frustrated through sudden loss of lives caused by accidents on our road; therefore, the need to undertake a research of this nature is very glaring. It will help us to see the rate at which death occurs through road accidents, how it affects the population and its consequences on the development of our country.

The aim of this write-up is to study the rate at which death occurs, causes and how far it affects the population of the country.

Population as it is being defined as total number of people living in the country at a particular time and it is being defined by equation:

Pt = Po (B – D) + (I – E)

Where Pt = Population at that point in time

Po = Actual population

B = Birth rate at that point in time

D = Death rate at that particular time

I =Immigration

E = Emigration

From the above equation, it can be deduced that mortality or death rate is one of the determinant factors of population.

The high death rates causes underdevelopment population and low death rates causes over development population and so on.

Therefore, there is a need to study the rate at which death occurs through accidents and how it affects the whole country. Death is caused by many factors in which accidents is one.

Road accidents in Nigeria are caused by many factors and it causes huge and sudden loss of lives and properties of the active population. (Working Population)

Accidents do not only cause loss of many lives but also an economic woe due to the destruction of some properties.

The government of Nigeria has realized these as a result, Federal Road Safety Commission was established in 1988 with offices and officers in each states of the country and has its headquarter at the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja.

They are adequately equipped with good vehicles and driving gadget to curb over-speeding and careless driving on our roads.

Government of this country also uses the mass media such as Radio, Television and Newspapers through several programmes to educate drivers and check their excesses.

From the foregoing, no topic could be more appropriate at this time than the topic of this nature. Even though the problems of road accidents are generally the same in every locality of this country, there are slight variations, hence a case study of the problems in one state (in this case Osun State) is necessary. It is hope that whatever effort put into a research of this nature will be justified at the end.

1.1     Statement of the Problem

Over the years, the behavior of commercial drivers on the roads, the conditions of their vehicles, their attitudes to passengers (particularly when they are advised) have been carefully observed. Poor conditions of our roads have also been watched.

Also, we have listened to news both on the Radio and Televisions about occurrences of accidents and its painful consequences. Sides of our road are also littered with damaged vehicles, which resulted from road accidents.

Therefore, this study intends to look into the rate of death as a result of road accidents with particular reference to Osun State of Nigeria.

It also aims at finding the means and possibilities of solving the problems by proposing possible remedy.

1.2     Significance of the Study

With the pains suffered by accident victims who escaped death but suffered either a partial damage or total loss of part of the body, the unnecessary or additional burden bore by relatives of these victims and at times loss of bread winners in families and or important persons in the nation which greatly hinder national development, it should be seen that the significance of a study of this nature cannot be over emphasized.

This study is very significant in many areas. It will identify the sources of blamer in regard to the frequently of accidents on our roads. It is hoped that the result will enable the pedestrians, road users; the management and staff of Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) see the rate, the effects of road accidents glaringly and be ready to work towards the reduction of accidents.

Finally, it is hope that this study will help Federal Government of Nigeria to see the urgency in the need for the repairs of our major roads.

1.3     Aims and Objectives of the Study

The main aim of the project is to find the relationship between road accidents and death occurrence, using correlation and regression analysis as our statistical tool.

The objectives of the project are:-

  1. To estimate the extent of linear relationship between death and number of serious and fatal cases of accident.
  2. To estimate the number of death, occurring per the number of fatal and serious cases of accident.
  3. To determine a linear mathematical method relating the number of persons killed to the number of fatal and serious cases of accidents.
  4. To make possible inference on data collection.
  5. To make some recommendation in order to control the future accidents.
  6. To know the variation in the value of Y (death) that can be predicted to change in the value of X (road accident)

1.4     Scope and Limitation of the Study

The scope (i.e. field) of the study of this project covers the relationship between the rate of accidents and that of death rate with particular reference to Osun State of Nigeria. There cannot but some problems in the course of collecting any classified under technical and attitudinal problems.

Technical problems include problems of coverage, time factor and lack of sufficient and competent enumerators. In the project some technical problems faced are:-

In ability to go to every state of the country to collect data. We concentrated our effort in Osun State of FRSC.

Although, this is still a true representative of the problems in other states of the Nation.

Therefore, it is used as our sample of statistical survey. Other problem is time constraint (time in collecting the data is short).

Hence, our reference to Osun State. Also, inability to meet respondents on time, we went to the state office of FRSC on several occasions before we could obtain the data.

Attitudinal problems are the most serious problems we are facing in Nigeria today, some of the attitudinal problems are financial factors.

Economic problems are due to fuel scarcity constitute a great problem as transportation to the source of statistical data was uneasy and expensive.

Finally, the time of the project survey is short and to make any statistical investigation a success, there must be enough time for the easiness of the study.

1.5     Source of Statistical Data

Statistical data are available in several forms some can be collected through experimentation in which the person that collects the data will have to carry out the experiment and record his observations which will serve as his data. Some could be collected through interviews whether direct, oral or indirect personal interview, which are classified as primary and secondary mode of data collection.

The data used in this project work are collected on daily, monthly and yearly basis in respect of numbers of accidents and number of deaths, number of people injured and number of vehicles involved e.t.c. from federal road safety commission (FESC) in osun state of Nigeria.

In order to provide fruitful information, attempt has been made to give brief historical background of FRSC our source of statistical data.

1.6     Brief Historical Background of Federal Road Safety Commission

The Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) was established by decree 45 of 1988, which was later amended by decree of 35 of 1993. It was mandated to do the following function:-

  1. prevent road traffic accidents.
  2. Do research on causes of road traffic accidents.
  3. Patrol all high ways to enforce traffic law and regulations.
  4. To educate motorists on the uses of the road vehicles registered in Nigeria.
  5. to enforce off recent the use of safety belt while driving.
  6. To give services to accident victims.
  7. Clear obstruction from the highways.
  8. To arrest anybody that commits road offence and charges him/her to court of law.
  9. To stop drivers from over loading of people and baggage.

Before the civil war and after it, the engineer corps of the Nigeria Army was carrying out these noble function, but in 1984 during the economic submit in Kenya, it was observed that accidents claim more lifes in Nigeria than the dreaded acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), hence the need to establish the FRSC over the years, the FRSC has been able to carry out these responsibilities, thereby reducing road traffic accident on the roads.

1.7     The Achievements of FRSC

The federal road safety commission has achieved a lot especially on the areas of prevention of road traffic accidents. In recent times road traffic accidents has reduced considerably. They also patrol the high ways on daily basis to enforce the rules. They have come out with uniform license for all road users in Nigeria. The federal road safety commission has also been able to bring about the reflecting plate in Nigeria.

The Federal Road Safety Commission has also set up road safety clubs and special marshal to bring about road safety culture to our local areas or grass roots.

The Federal Road Safety Commission has also established hospital in some major high ways in Nigeria; some are along Sagamu, Gbongan, Ijebu-JESA AND Brimu Gwari road. These help areas are used to give rescue/first aid to accident victims. Recently, the FRSC has started campaigning about traveling at night. The campaign is carried out in major motor parks in populace. The FRSC has over the year trained drivers, okada riders, trailer drivers on various techniques of driving. And this has assisted a long way in reducing road traffic accidents on our road.

The FRSC has put in place a lot a lot of programmes on radio and television to educate the motorists on how best to use the roads. These are some of their achievement over the years.

1.8     The Working Hypothesis

  1. The higher the rate of accidents the lower the rate of death.
  2. The higher the encouragement on education on road traffics and establishment of commission the lower the rate of accidents as well as death.

1.9     Definition of Related Terms

  1. Statistical Data: – information obtained through numerical data is known as statistical data.
  2. The Investigator: this is the person or body seeking information for his own or the researchers use.
  3. The Respondent: this is the person or body that supplies information for research use.
  4. The Interviewer:- this is the person sent by the investigator (or the investigator himself) to collect the required information from the appropriate quarters.
  5. Questionnaire: this is the form containing prepared questions to which the respondent is expected to supply answer.
  6. Population: it consists of object, which may be living or non-living, must be countable and may be finite or infinite. Population is finite when it has a specific and known number and infinite is when the number is too large to be known precisely.
  7. Highway Code: this is a booklet that contains the rules and regulations of using the roads.
  8. Sample: this is the point of the population on which further analysis is brought.
  9. Working Population: this is active population of the country. These are people of working age class.
  10. Rate: this is the amount, degree of anything in relation to unit of something else.
  11. Hypothesis: this is a statement about a distribution of a number of random variable intended to correspond to some statement about the real work or it is a statement about a population which we want to verify on the basis of information available from a sample.
  12. Null Hypothesis: this is the hypothesis we have set for the purpose of rejection.
  13. Alternative Hypothesis: this is the hypothesis we have set for the purpose of acceptance.
  14. Literature: this is the previous writing on a particular project.
  15. Survey: a detailed study made by gathering and analysis information.
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ABSTRACT

This project is on correlation and regression analysis on road accident and death occurrences (a case study of federal road safety commission (FRSC) Benue State, Nigeria, 2006-2013).

This study is geared towards the rate of accident and death occurrence in Osun State with a view of fitting regression line and correlation coefficient to describe the situations. The data covers five years period from 20012005. Chapter one discussed the background of the study, purpose of the study and its objective, scope, significance, limitation of the study, statement of the problem and sources of statistician data. Chapter two deals with literature review. Chapter three contains the research methodology, Data collection and tools to work with testing for the hypothesis, confidence interval for estimating the linear regression, method of calculating correlation coefficient r, coefficient of determination and testing for the significance of the association. Chapter four comprises the whole analysis of the data presentation, working examples on the above tools, interpretation at the end of each test. Chapter five involves the summary of findings, conclusion and recommendation of the study.

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CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON ROAD ACCIDENT AND DEATH OCCURRENCES (A case study of Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) Benue State, Nigeria, 2006-2013)

2,500.003,000.00 (-17%)

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