Model for prediction of rainfall intensity in Lagos



Abstract This project describes a calibration analysis of rainfall model which has been developed to forecast monthly rainfall for a period of 60 years. The model has been calibrated using rainfall data from various stations in Lagos State from 1924 – 1983. This time series of rainfall has been subjected to statistical analysis using regression analysis as a management tool.  The regression of the months of November, May, February and October are found to be adequate till 2040 for the prediction of rainfall intensity, while April, September, October, February, May and November are found to be adequate till 2008. However, Table 4.30 of June has 0.192845, Table 4.31 July of 0.100855, Table 4.33 of September of 0.004581, Table 4.35 of November yield coefficient of correlation (r), to be 0.018098 and Table 4.36 of December value of 0.227775 while others are negative values for the predicted period (1954– 1983).  The model so formulated with the result obtained can be used to assist the government, hydrologist, consultants, engineers and others engaged in water resources projects.

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